Access to electricity is a crucial aspect of modern life that impacts nearly every facet of human development. Electricity powers infrastructure, technology, industry, medicine, education and much more. It allows refrigeration to preserve food and medicine, lights homes at night, enables communication networks and drives progress in science and innovation. With electricity, communities can pump clean water, power hospitals, run schools and businesses, and enjoy entertainment in the evenings.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 770 million people, or 10% of the global population, still lacked access to electricity in 2020. The majority reside in sub-Saharan Africa. Providing universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030 is a key target under the UN Sustainable Development Goals (Our World in Data, n.d.). However, progress towards this goal has been uneven.
This makes the question of how long electricity would last without human maintenance an important thought experiment. It forces us to recognize our reliance on complex infrastructure that requires constant upkeep. Understanding the vulnerabilities in our electrical grid can encourage backup systems and prompt transitioning to more sustainable sources. Examining the lifespan of existing power systems also emphasizes the pressing need to reach the billion people still living without basic access.
Power Plant Operations
Most power plants today rely heavily on automation to operate efficiently, but still require some human monitoring and maintenance. According to Alberti’s 2023 article in Science Direct, automation has enabled major improvements in nuclear power plant productivity and safety, though plants still utilize human operators in supervisory roles to oversee operations and respond to unusual events or upsets [1]. The automation allows the power plant to constantly monitor and adjust critical parameters, as well as quickly detect abnormal conditions and prevent accidents. However, human operators are still needed to set targets for the automated systems, deal with complex or unexpected situations the automation cannot handle, and conduct general oversight and maintenance.
Natural gas power plants also utilize high levels of automation, which has reduced staffing requirements significantly. According to the IEEE article, new gas power plants are so automated they only need a small team to operate them, whereas previously they required large numbers of engineers and technicians [2]. The automated systems handle operations like turbine startup, load adjustments, valve control, and more. But humans still fulfill essential roles in monitoring performance, dealing with disturbances, conducting maintenance, and ensuring safety protocols are followed.
In summary, automation has enabled major staffing and efficiency improvements at power plants, but humans continue to provide vital operational oversight, maintenance, and management of exceptions beyond automation’s capabilities.
Fuel Sources
The majority of electricity generation relies on finite fuel sources like fossil fuels and nuclear power. According to a Statista report, coal and natural gas power plants have an expected lifetime of around 40 years. Nuclear power plants can operate for around 60 years before they need to be decommissioned.
In contrast, renewable energy sources like hydroelectric and solar power do not have the same limitations, as they rely on replenishable resources. Hydropower plants have an average lifespan of over 50 years and solar panels can continue generating electricity for 25-30 years. While the individual components or equipment may need occasional replacement, the fuel sources for hydro and solar can essentially last indefinitely without human intervention.
As finite sources like fossil fuels are depleted over time without humans to locate and extract more reserves, the share of electricity from renewables would increase. With proper maintenance, renewables could theoretically continue producing electricity indefinitely in an abandoned grid.
Transmission Grid
The transmission grid is a complex network of high-voltage power lines, transformers, and substations that transport electricity over long distances from power plants to local distribution systems (Blog: Grid Infrastructure Maintenance Part 1: How Do You Fix …). Proper monitoring and maintenance of this infrastructure is critical to avoid failures that can cause widespread blackouts. According to UniSource Energy Services, their electric grid covers 8,056 square miles, so maintaining it requires an enormous coordinated effort to inspect, repair, and upgrade equipment (How We Maintain Our Electric Grid – UniSource Energy Services). In the U.S., much of the grid infrastructure is over 25 years old and needs constant condition monitoring and maintenance to retain reliability, safety, and resilience (How Utilities Can Achieve Automated, Condition-Based Grid …). Without proper upkeep, the aging components are prone to problems like corrosion, cracked insulators, and transformer failures. Utilities must have plans in place to continuously maintain the complex transmission system.
Cybersecurity
Without humans monitoring automated systems, power grids and other critical infrastructure become vulnerable to cyber attacks. According to research from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), “In collaboration with industry, PNNL is creating systems with built-in resiliency and cybersecurity controls that enable energy delivery systems to keep working safely, efficiently and reliably when confronted with cyber threats.”
A 2021 review article in the National Library of Medicine stated, “Indeed, cyber attacks on power grids have already succeeded in causing temporary, large-scale blackouts in the recent past. In this paper, we analyze the challenges and opportunities associated with improving cybersecurity for power grids.”
The U.S. Department of Energy has warned, “This program is working with industry to support discovery and mitigation of advanced cyber threats to critical energy infrastructure through automated analysis and intelligence sharing between government and industry.” Without humans monitoring for threats, automated power grids would be vulnerable to catastrophic cyber attacks.
Environmental Factors
The power grid infrastructure faces constant threats from environmental factors like weather, vegetation, and wildlife. Extreme weather events like hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and wildfires can cause extensive damage to power lines, transformers, and other critical equipment (Source). For example, a 2022 winter storm in Texas led to widespread blackouts as ice and snow weighed down power lines and froze equipment (Source). Overgrown vegetation and tree limbs falling on lines are another common cause of outages. Squirrels, birds, and other wildlife can also disrupt equipment when they come into contact with power lines and substations.
As the climate changes, experts expect more frequent and intense extreme weather events that will continue to strain the aging grid infrastructure. Grid operators need to factor in these environmental threats and harden the grid against damage through grid modernization investments, vegetation management, and weatherization. Without proper adaptation measures, environmental disruptions to the equipment could accelerate and lead to longer and more widespread outages.
Prediction Models
Different studies have attempted to predict how long electricity will last without humans by making assumptions about various factors that affect grid operations. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a model to predict lithium-ion battery lifespan based on capacity fade and resistance growth as batteries degrade across different test conditions.
Researchers from North China Electric Power University created a model to predict the residual life of alternating current circuit breakers using degradation data from lifespan testing. The model can estimate remaining useful life based on the breaker’s operating age.
A study from Chongqing University in China used Gradient Boosting Regression Trees to predict lithium-ion battery lifespan based on features like charge rate, discharge rate, and temperature. The model can estimate full battery life cycles.
These prediction models make different assumptions about factors like equipment degradation, operating conditions, and maintenance. More data and real-world validation studies are needed to increase the accuracy of lifespan estimates.
Case Studies
There are some relevant examples of automated power systems operating without human intervention that provide insight into how long electricity could last without humans. In a case study by the Oak Ridge National Lab, the Chattanooga Electric Power Board implemented an advanced distribution automation system that was able to restore power and prevent $23 million in customer outage costs during a severe weather event without any human intervention (source).
Another case study from the Smart Grid Bulletin examined a distribution automation system implemented through the Department of Energy’s Smart Grid Investment Grant program. It found the automated system was able to restore power across the grid about 17 hours faster during a weather event compared to without the automation (source).
These examples demonstrate that automated power systems can operate to restore electricity without human intervention for a period of time after an outage event. However, long-term operation would depend on other factors like fuel supplies and maintenance.
Recommendations
There are several ways we can extend the viability of electricity without human monitoring and maintenance. Upgrading infrastructure and implementing automated systems will be key.
Power plants can be retrofitted with advanced automation technology to enable remote monitoring and reduce the need for onsite staff (source). Building management systems can similarly prolong operations by automating temperature regulation, security, emergency protocols and more (source). Investing in smart analytics platforms for critical infrastructure can also improve lifespan by optimizing performance and identifying issues early (source).
We should also diversify energy sources to rely less on finite fossil fuels. Expanding renewable generation from solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal can provide sustainable power. And maintaining strategic reserves of key fuels like natural gas and coal will help bridge gaps if renewable production fluctuates.
Additionally, hardening cybersecurity measures will be essential to prevent malicious attacks on our grid. Upgrading to the latest firewalls, encryption standards and access controls can help shut out bad actors looking to disrupt operations.
With the right preparations, we may be able to sustain functional electricity service for decades without human intervention. But we must invest now in automation, renewables and security.
Conclusions
In summary, the timeframe for continued electricity generation after humans is dependent on several key factors. Most power plants require continuous maintenance and fuel to operate. Without human intervention, fuel sources would eventually be depleted, equipment would break down from lack of maintenance, and cyberattacks could potentially disrupt grid operations.
However, studies show the grid could potentially continue operating automatically for weeks or even months if power plant and grid operators set up contingency plans before disappearing. Backup power supplies like hydroelectric dams and nuclear plants with years of fuel could keep parts of the grid energized. But eventually, equipment failures, fuel depletion, and other factors would lead to widespread blackouts.
Overall, most experts estimate electricity could continue flowing anywhere from 2 weeks to 6 months without humans monitoring and maintaining critical infrastructure, depending on the region. But the grid would become increasingly unstable over time. Setting up autonomous control systems could potentially extend the operational lifespan somewhat, but electricity would inevitably cease without human oversight.