Hard disk drives, also known as HDDs or hard drives, have been the dominant form of computer data storage for decades. However, with the rise of solid state drives (SSDs) in recent years, many technology experts believe that the days of hard disk drives may be numbered. In this article, we’ll examine the evidence and arguments on both sides of this issue.
The case for hard drives being phased out
There are several key factors suggesting that HDDs are slowly being replaced by SSDs:
- Falling costs of SSDs – The cost per gigabyte of SSD storage has dropped dramatically in the last decade, making SSDs more affordable and competitive with HDDs. This trend is expected to continue.
- Faster performance of SSDs – SSDs have no moving parts and can access data almost instantly, while HDDs rely on physical spinning disks. This makes SSDs much faster for typical consumer workloads.
- Improved reliability of SSDs – With no moving parts, SSDs are less prone to mechanical failure over time compared to HDDs.
- Smaller size and less noise from SSDs – SSDs take up less physical space and generate no noise, making them better suited for slim laptops and tablets.
- Increasing flash storage manufacturing capacity – Driven by smartphones and other devices, global solid state flash storage production capacity continues to grow rapidly.
Many PC and laptop manufacturers are increasingly using SSDs in their products rather than HDDs. For example, some ultrabooks and high-end laptops no longer include HDDs at all. Even game consoles like the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S rely solely on SSDs or other solid state storage, with no HDD option. With the rise of lightweight mobile computing, noiseless operation and low power consumption have become more important factors, favoring SSD adoption.
The case for hard drives not being phased out
However, there are also signs that HDDs will continue to play a role in the storage market:
- Much higher storage capacity of HDDs – HDDs are available today in capacities up to 20TB for consumer hard drives, while the largest consumer SSDs are around 8TB. This makes HDDs better suited for high capacity bulk storage needs.
- Lower $/TB costs of HDDs – On a per terabyte basis, HDDs remain significantly cheaper than SSDs. This makes HDDs more cost effective for large storage requirements.
- Enterprise HDDs continue to advance – In the enterprise and data center market, HDD technology continues to evolve with new capacity and performance innovations.
- Growing storage demands favor HDD capacity – The world’s data storage needs are growing exponentially. For many large-scale storage needs, such as in data centers, HDDs provide a dense, cost-effective solution to store enormous amounts of data.
- HDDs sufficient for many consumer uses – For basic everyday computing like web browsing, office productivity, even gaming, HDDs are still adequate in terms of performance for most consumers. SSD prices would have to fall further to induce mass consumer HDD to SSD migration.
HDDs and SSDs are likely to co-exist for some time, with each retaining certain advantages. HDDs are likely to remain popular in enterprise environments, data centers, NAS devices, and other applications where large storage capacity is important. SSDs will dominate in consumer devices and environments where performance, silent operation and durability are critical.
Forecasts on the future share of HDDs vs SSDs
Research firms that track the storage market have varying forecasts for the future breakdown between HDD and SSD share of total shipments. Some key predictions include:
- IDC forecasts the HDD/SSD split in 2023 will be around 69% HDD vs 31% SSD, reaching 59% HDD vs 41% SSD by 2026.[1]
- Statista predicts HDDs will maintain 50% market share through 2025, only falling slightly below 50% by 2030.[2]
- TrendForce expects the HDD share of client SSD+HDD shipments to decline from 47.3% in 2018 to 34.7% by 2022.[3]
Overall, while SSD adoption is expected to accelerate, HDDs are projected to maintain close to 50% market share or higher over the next 5 years. Rather than being phased out, HDDs are expected to co-exist with SSDs to meet the dual needs for high capacity bulk storage and higher performance in computing devices.
Examples of products and use cases still commonly using HDDs
Despite the rise of SSDs, there are still many common situations where HDDs continue to be widely used:
Desktop and laptop PCs
Many budget desktops and laptops, as well as gaming PCs, use a smaller SSD for the operating system and apps, along with a larger HDD for data storage. This allows them to benefit from SSD speed, while still offering high capacities from the HDD.
External storage drives
External USB hard disk drives remain extremely popular for providing terabytes of storage capacity at affordable prices. Portable and desktop external HDDs are commonly used for PC and console game storage, media libraries, photo/video storage, backups, and more.
Network Attached Storage (NAS) devices
Most home and small business NAS servers contain multiple HDDs for increased capacity, rather than more expensive flash drives. Large HDD capacities allow NAS devices to effectively share files, media, backups, etc across a network.
Surveillance storage
Video surveillance systems typically write large amounts of data continuously to their storage media. Reliable, high capacity and cost-effective HDDs are the norm for surveillance recording storage needs.
Data center servers
While enterprise SSDs are gaining adoption, the bulk of data center storage capacity still relies on high capacity HDDs for big data, cloud storage, backups, archiving, and other server storage needs. HDDs provide the lowest $/TB costs.
Game consoles
The Xbox Series X/S and PlayStation 5 use SSDs for their internal storage. However, both support expansion with external USB HDDs, which offer significantly higher capacities for storing game libraries at lower costs compared to external SSDs.
Conclusion
While SSDs are taking over in many computing devices and seeing strong growth, HDD technology continues to provide unique benefits that make it well-suited for many common storage needs. Forecasts indicate hard disk drives will maintain around 40-50% market share or more over the next 5+ years. HDDs are likely to co-exist with SSDs for a long time, rather than being totally phased out in the foreseeable future.
| Storage Type | Advantages | Disadvantages |
|---|---|---|
| Hard Disk Drives (HDDs) | High capacities, Low cost per TB, Well-suited for high capacity bulk storage needs | Slower performance, higher latencies, mechanically fragile with moving parts |
| Solid State Drives (SSDs) | Faster performance, lower latencies, more durable with no moving parts, silent operation | Higher cost per TB, lower capacities, not well-suited for very large storage needs |